Democrat Tracy Mitrano has narrowed the distance between her and Congressional incumbent Tom Reed (R), according to two polls conducted on Oct. 6 by Global Strategy Group and?Public Policy Polling.
The poll brief states that voters' new knowledge of Reed and his congressional record has caused the district to lean towards democrat. Mitrano now trails Reed by seven points, records the poll.?
The brief states that approx.?two-thirds of voters (66 percent) said they had seen, read, or heard something recently about Tom Reed that have colored the congressperson in an unfavorable light. In July,?Reed was viewed positively by 11 points,?(48 percent favorable/37 percent unfavorable)— he is now nearly breaking even (40 percent favorable/38 percent unfavorable), a net change of nine points in the past few months.
"While the district leans Republican, it has swung decidedly in a Democratic direction since 2016. As communications on Reed have landed over the last few weeks, he has become markedly less popular, and the race for Congress has moved in Mitrano’s direction – she’s well within striking distance," the brief states.?
Within the last month, Mitrano's campaign has seen a jump of six points. An older?poll conducted in August, placed her 12 points behind the incumbent. Mitrano last faced off against Reed in 2018. She lost the race by 10 points (55.2 percent to 45.8 percent).?
The October poll also states that the district has began a lean Democrat since 2010 and the last presidential election in 2016. The poll places President Donald Trump ahead of former Vice-President Joe Biden in a five point lead. Trump won the district by 15 points in 2016.
Mitrano's move into single digits now places Congressional incumbent Tom Reed in, what some term, the danger zone for incumbents.?
“The numbers speak for themselves," said Mitrano. “We are closing in on Tom Reed because he has failed this district. When voters learn about our campaign, they join us because the people of this district are united in seeking change.”?
The general election will be held on Nov. 3 with polls open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. For more details on absentee and early voting options, click here.
ABOUT THESE POLLS Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,228 voters in NY-23 from September 28-29, 2020. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 2.8%. 62% of the interviews were conducted by telephone and 38% by text message. Global Strategy Group conducted a telephone survey of 502 likely general election voters in NY-23 from July 23-26, 2020. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.4%. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.?